Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ee…e63d other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-1%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$13
politics 13% −$6
other 4% −$64
sports 1% −$35
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 32 -22.0% -29.4% 6% 0% -21.8%
all 48 -13.1% -21.4% 15% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 2% -10.2%
10% -28.9% 2% -18.8%
15% -35.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -42.1% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage614d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $83 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Magic vs. Hawks Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Senators vs. Capitals Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $24 +$21 +89%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Mar 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $13,516 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $387 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $933 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $180 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $491 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 21h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 24h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 41¢ $6 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $8 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.49 · official $24.49 (match) · 264 history records