Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ec…526f world 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%27W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$9
other 22% −$3
politics 18% +$1
sports 12% −$11
crypto 5% −$3
finance 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -2.5% -11.7% 32% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -2.1% -11.4% 24% 1% -9.8%
all 96 -4.5% -13.6% 28% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 5% -10.2%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.8%
15% -29.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -36.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses27 / 69
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage532d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $63 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $81 −$3 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $60 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 +$2 +16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $118 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $111 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $38 −$4 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $35 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $47 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $33 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $33 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $25 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $16 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records