Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd7eb…a668 crypto 799 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$641 (-2%) realized −$668 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate65%618W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 168d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$51
other 13% −$865
sports 3% +$10
world 2% +$104
tech 1% +$48
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -89.5% -90.5% 6% 6% -83.8%
≤30d 199 -86.4% -87.7% 8% 8% -82.4%
≤90d 373 -48.9% -53.8% 38% 24% -36.8%
all 957 -18.8% -26.6% 65% 37% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 37% -15.1%
10% -33.6% 18% -23.2%
15% -40.0% 10% -30.7%
20% -45.9% 6% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$668
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses618 / 339
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)957 / 799
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $71 $80 +$9 (+13%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 85¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+10%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 100¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+84%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 302 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jeannette Jara and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tou Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2025-12-13? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lot 13 Ernst Ludwig Kirchner’s “Fränzi mit Pfeilbogen” sell for 3 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $6 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $11 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 28h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 29h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 3d
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $15 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $23 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.36 · official $183.36 (match) · 3500 history records