Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D7 0xd7e7…8f26 crypto 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,922 (-5%) realized −$2,977 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%167W / 84L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$420
14 days−$664
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$180
sports 24% −$1,037
world 17% +$286
culture 16% −$1,681
other 4% −$260
finance 3% +$198
politics 3% +$22
tech 0% +$17
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -25.0% -32.1% 46% 46% -19.6%
≤30d 173 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 62% -10.2%
≤90d 186 -0.1% -9.7% 68% 61% -9.1%
all 251 -3.7% -12.9% 67% 53% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 53% -13.8%
10% -21.2% 31% -22.1%
15% -28.9% 18% -29.6%
20% -35.8% 17% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$106 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$1,221
Realized−$2,977
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses167 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions5
Markets (closed)251 / 256
History coverage308d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes $440 $591 +$151 (+34%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $456 $460 +$4 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $125 −$95 (-43%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 90¢ 78¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 44¢ 43¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $154 −$38 -25%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 20 $60 −$15 -25%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $64 +$36 +57%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $321 −$16 -5%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $292 −$16 -6%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $80 +$20 +25%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $79 +$21 +26%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $356 +$44 +12%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $355 −$41 -11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $78 +$22 +28%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $359 +$41 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $235 −$230 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $343 +$57 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $78 +$22 +29%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $77 +$23 +30%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $164 +$36 +22%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $77 +$23 +31%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $79 +$21 +27%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $79 +$21 +27%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $799 −$339 -42%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $477 −$113 -24%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $158 +$42 +27%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $348 −$8 -2%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $512 −$32 -6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $176 +$24 +14%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $336 +$64 +19%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $336 −$16 -5%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $79 +$21 +27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $330 +$70 +21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $261 +$39 +15%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $170 +$30 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $165 +$35 +21%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $176 +$24 +14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $168 +$32 +19%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $88 +$12 +14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $82 +$18 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $116 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $45 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 63¢ $64 3d
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 85¢ $73 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,221.07 · official $1,221.07 (match) · 1400 history records