Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd7e7…fef1 sports 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,811 (-72%) realized −$2,748 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%88W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$214
14 days−$165
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$240
other 21% −$534
politics 3% −$66
world 0% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -22.9% -30.2% 32% 32% -40.4%
≤30d 161 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 33% -24.5%
≤90d 296 -11.6% -20.0% 30% 28% -28.4%
all 296 -11.6% -20.0% 30% 28% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 28% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 28% -35.2%
15% -34.7% 27% -41.5%
20% -41.1% 26% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$2,748
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses88 / 208
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)296 / 301
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 38¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 48¢ $21 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Norway 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$19 +226%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$21 +140%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $9 +$11 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $4 +$4 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $15 +$12 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16 +$9 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$37 +343%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $8 +$8 +106%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $9 +$12 +140%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 +$6 +550%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $38 +$19 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 25m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 30m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 35m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 40m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 45m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 50m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 55m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.00 · official $131.00 (match) · 3500 history records