Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7e5…fe31 crypto 855 markets active 13d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,173 (-190%) realized −$8,173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%164W / 691L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day152.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$646
sports 12% +$9
other 1% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 846 -28.2% -35.1% 19% 19% -27.8%
≤90d 855 -27.0% -33.9% 19% 19% -27.4%
all 855 -27.0% -33.9% 19% 19% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 19% -27.4%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 18% -34.4%
15% -46.0% 15% -40.7%
20% -51.3% 13% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses164 / 691
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)855 / 855
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day152.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 855 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +237%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 1¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $13 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records