Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D7 0xd7e4…fbb9 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+5%) realized +$73 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days+$111
14 days+$185
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$35
other 24% +$123
crypto 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +12.4% +1.7% 44% 44% -0.8%
≤30d 54 -3.3% -12.5% 39% 39% +1.9%
≤90d 67 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% +1.4%
all 67 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% +1.4%
10% -21.7% 37% -8.3%
15% -29.3% 37% -17.1%
20% -36.2% 31% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage39d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 6¢ 4¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $69 +$105 +151%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 29 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +83%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 28 $153 −$153 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 +$30 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $121 +$61 +50%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$9 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$36 +36%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $3 +$22 +704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $65 +$60 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 +$127 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$25 +81%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$26 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$1 -24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $75 +$76 +101%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $17 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 6¢ $7 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $76 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $76 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 3h
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL Nemiga Gaming 86¢ $24 3h
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Nemiga Gaming 70¢ $10 10h
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Nemiga Gaming 70¢ $10 10h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $2 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 31h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 59¢ $10 31h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $48 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY SAW 19¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 5¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.26 · official $162.22 (match) · 151 history records