Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7de…372a world 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 19% +$14
sports 17% −$5
economics 14% $0
politics 11% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 31 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 3% -8.7%
all 46 -5.1% -14.2% 35% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -9.1%
10% -22.4% 7% -17.8%
15% -29.9% 4% -25.8%
20% -36.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage527d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $27 −$2 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $52 +$15 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $59 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $19 $0 +2%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $290 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $49 +$1 +1%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $258 +$7 +3%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 10 $7 $0 -7%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Apr 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Timothée Chalamet bring his mom to the Oscars? Mar 02 $4 $0 -10%
USC vs. Oregon Mar 01 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 18 $4 +$1 +37%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Baylor vs. Houston Feb 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua score a touchdown? Feb 05 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Trump attend the launch? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 22 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $35 21m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $21 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $24 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records