Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D7 0xd7dd…4843 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$60 (+5%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%32W / 23L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$6
14 days+$64
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$1
sports 36% +$61
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.4% -18.0% 67% 67% +1.7%
≤30d 22 +71.9% +55.5% 77% 77% +27.6%
≤90d 55 +24.0% +12.2% 58% 58% +3.3%
all 55 +24.0% +12.2% 58% 58% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 58% +3.3%
10% +1.4% 56% -6.6%
15% -8.4% 49% -15.6%
20% -17.3% 36% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses32 / 23
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage68d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 76¢ 100¢ $23 $31 +$7 (+32%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Yes 51¢ 51¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Miami Marlins 28¢ 100¢ $3 $9 +$7 (+257%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Seattle Mariners 33¢ 100¢ $3 $8 +$6 (+203%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+100%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) San Francisco Giants 20¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+400%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Raptors (-4.5) Heat 54¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Cavaliers 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Washington Nationals 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Fonseca vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bucsa vs. Zheng: Match O/U 21.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $17 +$6 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 07 $23 +$7 +31%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 06 $3 +$6 +203%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 05 $1 +$4 +400%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $2 +$5 +270%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $3 +$5 +163%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 02 $3 +$7 +257%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $18 +$3 +19%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 02 $17 +$6 +36%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $17 +$7 +38%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 02 $3 +$7 +257%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) May 18 $4 +$2 +37%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 18 $3 +$4 +122%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) May 18 $7 +$2 +32%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 18 $6 +$3 +43%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 May 13 $14 +$5 +38%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5 May 13 $21 +$6 +27%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 May 08 $3 +$3 +104%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 08 $3 +$4 +144%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 08 $3 +$5 +170%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 216.5 May 08 $5 +$5 +104%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5 May 08 $14 +$14 +97%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 08 $18 +$12 +65%
Bucsa vs. Zheng: Match O/U 21.5 May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 24 $27 −$26 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 Apr 24 $4 +$5 +144%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Apr 24 $5 +$6 +104%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 24 $6 +$6 +104%
Rangers vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Apr 24 $6 +$8 +127%
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5 Apr 24 $32 +$10 +32%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fonseca vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 73¢ $17 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 53¢ $8 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 73¢ $20 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 3d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 76¢ $23 7d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 33¢ $3 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 20¢ $1 9d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 28¢ $0 12d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 28¢ $3 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $15 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 15d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 17d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $17 19d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 20d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 73¢ $17 24d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 25d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 26d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 28¢ $0 27d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 28¢ $3 27d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 76¢ $7 28d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $6 29d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 73¢ $4 30d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 13¢ $1 31d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $741 32d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $2 32d
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.91 · official $177.91 (match) · 161 history records