Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7dc…9f5f other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$79 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 22% +0.2%
≤30d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 22% +0.2%
≤90d 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 22% +0.2%
all 9 +4.1% -5.8% 44% 22% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 22% +0.2%
10% -14.8% 22% -9.4%
15% -23.1% 22% -18.1%
20% -30.6% 22% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 80¢ $482 $431 −$51 (-11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $236 +$7 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$34 -75%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 58m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $345 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $139 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $119 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $118 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $117 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 93¢ $9 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 92¢ $10 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.88 · official $445.88 (match) · 27 history records