Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7da…fe65 crypto 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -24.0% -31.2% 62% 38% -20.7%
≤30d 13 -24.0% -31.2% 62% 38% -20.7%
≤90d 13 -24.0% -31.2% 62% 38% -20.7%
all 13 -24.0% -31.2% 62% 38% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 38% -20.7%
10% -37.8% 23% -28.3%
15% -43.8% 15% -35.2%
20% -49.3% 15% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $280 $287 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.11 · official $290.11 (match) · 34 history records