Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D7 0xd7d6…a9fe sports 246 markets active 19h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$106 (+9%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%146W / 98L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$83
sports 45% +$25
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +5.5% -4.5% 52% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 93 +9.9% -0.5% 57% 56% +0.9%
≤90d 244 +11.8% +1.2% 60% 59% -0.2%
all 244 +11.8% +1.2% 60% 59% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 59% -0.2%
10% -8.5% 57% -9.8%
15% -17.4% 49% -18.5%
20% -25.5% 41% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses146 / 98
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage55d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +393%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 −$7 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$9 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -64%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$2 +31%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $5 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $10 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $5 28h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 65¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $1 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $10 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 2¢ $0 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 2¢ $0 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $2 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 66¢ $4 44h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $5 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $5 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.72 · official $5.72 (match) · 482 history records