Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ce…fd49 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$549 (-20%) realized −$624 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$151
14 days−$472
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$465
sports 25% +$67
crypto 4% −$100
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 43% -30.7%
≤30d 30 -14.5% -22.7% 37% 33% -33.8%
≤90d 38 -21.4% -28.9% 34% 32% -34.4%
all 38 -21.4% -28.9% 34% 32% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 32% -34.4%
10% -35.7% 32% -40.7%
15% -41.9% 32% -46.4%
20% -47.6% 32% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$53 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized−$624
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage62d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 82¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $180 $169 −$11 (-6%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $130 $161 +$31 (+24%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $110 $93 −$17 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$76 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $81 +$55 +68%
Exact Score: AA Ponte Preta 2 - 1 Cuiabá EC? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $81 −$10 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 +$100 +124%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $81 +$89 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$83 -81%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $152 −$102 -67%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $51 +$3 +6%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $31 +$73 +238%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $20 +$66 +325%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 03 $20 +$11 +52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $51 +$37 +73%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Belgium? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 3h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $81 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 70¢ $99 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 70¢ $37 6d
Exact Score: AA Ponte Preta 2 - 1 Cuiabá EC? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $81 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 8d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $71 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $82 10d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 10d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $81 10d
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $81 10d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 11d
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 11d
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 47¢ $81 11d
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 11d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 11d
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 11d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 8¢ $72 11d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 17¢ $133 11d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $184 11d
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 12d
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.65 · official $594.65 (match) · 69 history records