Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ca…ebd1 other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,747 (-17%) realized −$1,727 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,526
7 days−$1,236
14 days−$1,266
30 days−$1,561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$580
other 37% −$306
world 20% −$985
politics 5% −$149
crypto 1% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -27.1% -34.0% 35% 29% -23.4%
≤30d 58 -28.9% -35.7% 34% 29% -25.6%
≤90d 63 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 29% -27.2%
all 63 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 29% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 29% -27.2%
10% -43.3% 24% -34.1%
15% -48.8% 16% -40.5%
20% -53.8% 10% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$80 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$1,727
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 42
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage42d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Croatia to score first vs. England? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $90 $76 −$14 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $159 −$80 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $266 +$291 +110%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -15%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$44 -87%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$7 -13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 −$41 -26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $151 +$47 +31%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$17 -17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$26 -51%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 −$17 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $401 +$33 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $426 −$120 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 +$64 +25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $805 −$82 -10%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$23 -47%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$18 -61%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $356 −$156 -44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $111 +$44 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $808 +$412 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $192 +$85 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 +$228 +159%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $465 +$94 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $221 −$148 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $74 +$5 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 14 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 −$4 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 +$71 +47%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $250 −$83 -33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $311 −$263 -85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $40 −$36 -90%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 17m
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 18m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 74¢ $150 30m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 32m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 36m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 37m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 37m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 11¢ $25 37m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 38m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $31 46m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 47m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 50m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 61¢ $167 51m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $51 57m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 57m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 56¢ $14 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 56¢ $38 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 54¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 52¢ $31 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 46¢ $283 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $103 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 71¢ $191 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 4¢ $7 6h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.35 · official $310.35 (match) · 200 history records