Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7ca…ca95 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$21
14 days+$16
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$23
politics 24% −$67
sports 19% −$10
crypto 10% −$3
culture 4% −$2
finance 4% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 2% +$38
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.3% -7.4% 5% 5% -8.8%
≤30d 62 +0.4% -9.2% 5% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 112 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 1% -9.9%
all 128 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 117
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 95¢ 94¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $151 −$2 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $109 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $452 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $206 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $59 +$39 +66%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $95 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $60 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $93 −$1 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $0 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $110 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $58 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 9h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 10h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $52 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $54 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 22h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 29h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 30h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $59 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $60 38h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 39h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $53 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $67 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $67 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $3 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.32 · official $57.32 (match) · 442 history records