Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D7 0xd7c8…3af6 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$545 (-7%) realized −$576 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$487per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$45

14 days+$45

30 days+$72

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+29.0%	+16.7%	100%	100%	+16.7%
≤30d	5	+23.0%	+11.3%	80%	40%	+2.7%
≤90d	10	-7.1%	-16.0%	70%	30%	-47.6%
all	14	+19.4%	+8.1%	79%	43%	-16.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.1%	43%	-16.4%
10%	-2.3%	21%	-24.4%
15%	-11.7%	14%	-31.7%
20%	-20.4%	14%	-38.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

45% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$176 vs −$829 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage

Net worth$108

Realized−$576

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage102d

Avg bet$487

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	No	48¢	68¢	$77	$108	+$31 (+41%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$155	+$45	+29%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$81	+$139	+172%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 05	$124	−$122	-99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Jun 01	$46	+$4	+9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	Jun 01	$124	+$6	+5%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.25 by April 30?	May 17	$178	+$22	+12%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Apr 25	$518	−$518	-100%
76ers vs. Celtics	Apr 20	$1,848	−$1,848	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?	Apr 02	$796	+$5	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	Apr 02	$1,485	+$15	+1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Mar 30	$35	+$4	+13%
Kings vs. Hawks	Mar 29	$1,320	+$180	+14%
Rockets vs. Bulls	Mar 28	$480	+$1,520	+317%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee	Mar 22	$40	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY No	48¢	$78	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$155	6d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$81	15d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	68¢	$124	23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	BUY No	92¢	$46	29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	BUY No	96¢	$21	41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	BUY No	96¢	$65	42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	BUY No	96¢	$39	42d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	37¢	$308	64d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	37¢	$210	64d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$500	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$5	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$12	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$23	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$880	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$37	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$352	69d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	88¢	$39	69d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.25 by April 30?	BUY No	89¢	$50	81d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.25 by April 30?	BUY No	89¢	$68	81d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.25 by April 30?	BUY No	89¢	$60	81d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	SELL No	98¢	$39	90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	BUY No	99¢	$162	91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	BUY No	99¢	$4	91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	BUY No	99¢	$842	91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	BUY No	99¢	$277	91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	BUY No	99¢	$200	91d
Kings vs. Hawks	BUY Hawks	88¢	$417	92d
Kings vs. Hawks	BUY Hawks	88¢	$824	92d
Kings vs. Hawks	BUY Hawks	88¢	$78	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.00 · official $108.00 (match) · 57 history records