Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D7 0xd7ba…483e other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$42 (+33%) realized +$43 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip

Net edge+65%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+71.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+89.4%	+71.3%	100%	100%	+71.3%
≤30d	1	+89.4%	+71.3%	100%	100%	+71.3%
≤90d	1	+89.4%	+71.3%	100%	100%	+71.3%
all	1	+89.4%	+71.3%	100%	100%	+71.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+71.3%	100%	+71.3%
10%	+54.9%	100%	+54.9%
15%	+40.0%	100%	+40.0%
20%	+26.2%	100%	+26.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +89% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +89% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$43

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	60¢	60¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-3%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5)	Japan	0¢	0¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$46	+$41	+89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Japan (-3.5)	BUY Japan	0¢	$1	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	60¢	$30	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY	43¢	$48	7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$88	7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	52¢	$46	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.35 · official $79.54 · 6 history records