Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7b8…50fa crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$80 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate65%100W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$9
world 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 20% -8.2%
≤30d 153 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 153 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 25% -9.2%
all 153 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 25% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 25% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 12% -17.9%
15% -28.5% 5% -25.8%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses100 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage15d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $126 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $93 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 582 history records