Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd7b7…3852 weather 1410 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+1%) realized +$271 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate90%1262W / 142L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$940
7 days−$185
14 days+$139
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% +$24
sports 36% +$149
world 0% +$1
other 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 59% -12.2%
≤30d 332 +0.9% -8.8% 70% 62% -8.0%
≤90d 1404 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 16% -8.8%
all 1404 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 16% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 16% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 12% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 9% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1262 / 142
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1404 / 1410
History coverage79d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 74¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? No 73¢ 76¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 63¢ 62¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 51¢ 61¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) Jun 16 $18 +$6 +34%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $7 +$5 +67%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$5 +82%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$7 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $12 +$5 +46%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 74¢ $20 41m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 74¢ $20 41m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 94¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 63¢ $17 3h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 74¢ $18 3h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $21 3h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 64¢ $18 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 59¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $18 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $7 12h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) SELL Galions 100¢ $11 13h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $26 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $5 13h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 94¢ $5 15h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $5 15h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $15 16h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $19 17h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $22 17h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 68¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 100¢ $25 18h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 49¢ $5 19h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Vici Gaming 73¢ $15 19h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 71¢ $16 19h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 79¢ $15 19h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 79¢ $15 19h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 75¢ $18 19h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $18 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.91 · official $87.91 (match) · 3098 history records