Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7b3…0d6c other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$14
world 42% −$3
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -5.1% -14.1% 38% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 13 -5.1% -14.1% 38% 0% -10.9%
all 33 -5.2% -14.3% 33% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -11.5%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.7%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage252d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $20 −$6 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $45 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $46 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $50 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $24 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 2m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $31 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $40 21d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $19 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $19 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 46¢ $14 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $12 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $45 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $45 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $49 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $49 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $49 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $48 25d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records