Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7b2…027f sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$225 (+3%) realized +$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate100%15W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$206
14 days+$206
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$12
other 31% +$207
politics 14% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +26.3%
≤30d 5 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 20% -0.2%
≤90d 13 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 8% -6.0%
all 15 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 7% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 7% -6.5%
10% -15.8% 7% -15.5%
15% -24.0% 7% -23.6%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$726
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses15 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage98d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $726 $726 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $520 +$206 +40%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $510 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $510 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Whatley be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? May 21 $240 $0 +0%
Will Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? May 21 $250 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 09 $210 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 28 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Justin Bieber feature Bad Bunny during his Coachella performances Apr 21 $514 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $509 +$5 +1%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 03 $509 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $508 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $508 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $506 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $726 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $520 23h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $510 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 100¢ $510 26d
Will Pierre Whatley be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? BUY No 100¢ $240 35d
Will Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? BUY No 100¢ $250 35d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec BUY No 100¢ $210 43d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun BUY No 100¢ $300 43d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 100¢ $500 47d
Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $515 56d
Will Justin Bieber feature Bad Bunny during his Coachella performances BUY No 100¢ $514 63d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 99¢ $509 70d
Knicks vs. Grizzlies BUY Knicks 100¢ $509 77d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $508 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 100¢ $508 91d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 100¢ $506 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $726.36 · official $726.36 (match) · 33 history records