Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7af…4184 crypto 404 markets active 5d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$237 (-2%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%228W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,517
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 47% -9.8%
≤30d 210 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 51% -4.8%
≤90d 210 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 51% -4.8%
all 404 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 53% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 53% -19.1%
10% -20.3% 43% -26.8%
15% -28.0% 28% -33.9%
20% -35.1% 20% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses228 / 176
Open positions0
Markets (closed)404 / 404
History coverage109d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 404 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1649 history records