Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7aa…367c weather 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-20%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% $0
weather 28% −$3
crypto 26% −$12
politics 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 50% 38% -28.9%
≤30d 14 -42.4% -47.9% 36% 21% -28.8%
≤90d 14 -42.4% -47.9% 36% 21% -28.8%
all 14 -42.4% -47.9% 36% 21% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 21% -28.8%
10% -52.9% 7% -35.6%
15% -57.4% 7% -41.8%
20% -61.6% 7% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Alfonso Scoppa win the 2026 Angri mayoral election? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? SELL No 94¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 31¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on June 10? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 99¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? SELL Yes $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records