Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd7aa…b767
crypto · 493 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$297 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$250 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses299 / 193
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)492 / 493
History coverage96d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 492 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 46¢ 24¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on April 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 15? No 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on April 14? No 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $206 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $127 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$64 +62%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15 Apr 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 14 Apr 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 15? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15 Apr 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 15? Apr 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 14? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 14? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on April 1 Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Levante UD vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 15? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 14? Apr 14 $0 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$235
sports 8% −$7
other 6% −$55
weather 3% −$2
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 59d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 59d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15 SELL No 74¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 38% -17.3%
≤30d 8 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 38% -17.3%
≤90d 448 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 47% -28.6%
all 492 -5.1% -14.1% 61% 50% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 50% -16.5%
10% -22.3% 34% -24.4%
15% -29.9% 23% -31.7%
20% -36.7% 16% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.26 · official $53.26 (match) · 1156 history records