Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D7 0xd7a8…5072 world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 38L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$16
other 31% +$36
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 22 +0.6% -8.9% 41% 5% -8.6%
all 61 +3.8% -6.1% 38% 5% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 5% -7.5%
10% -15.1% 3% -16.4%
15% -23.3% 3% -24.5%
20% -30.8% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage301d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $157 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $48 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $78 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $75 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $166 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $107 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $33 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $103 −$4 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $86 +$17 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $14 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $90 +$6 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $85 −$2 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 19 $84 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $84 +$1 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $58 +$1 +2%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 24 $14 +$30 +214%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $6 +$4 +61%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 28 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 28 $21 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 27 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $82 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $48 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $33 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $42 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $73 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.78 · official $82.28 (match) · 265 history records