Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd7a5…3fcd crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$353 (+5%) realized +$355 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%57W / 4L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$4
other 29% +$343
crypto 17% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 48 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 2% -9.4%
all 61 +1.6% -8.1% 93% 3% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -4.7%
10% -16.9% 3% -13.8%
15% -24.9% 3% -22.1%
20% -32.3% 3% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×25.38 per $1 lost it wins $25.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses57 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage138d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $2,469 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 May 25-31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 26 $24 +$21 +86%
Will Solana reach $110 May 18-24? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 26h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2,466 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2,469 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.10 · official $43.10 (match) · 124 history records