Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7a4…2612 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-19%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$8
weather 29% −$3
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.5% +6.3% 43% 43% +9.1%
≤30d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 20% -15.0%
≤90d 59 +7.1% -3.1% 20% 17% -30.3%
all 59 +7.1% -3.1% 20% 17% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 17% -30.3%
10% -12.3% 15% -36.9%
15% -20.8% 15% -43.0%
20% -28.6% 15% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage75d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 02 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 02 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $1 +$6 +573%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 01 $1 +$5 +455%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 01 $1 +$5 +489%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 41¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records