Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd7a2…dd32 politics 78 markets active 3h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$7
other 38% −$2
sports 11% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.5%
all 77 -5.0% -14.1% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage374d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$2 +2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $69 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $3 $0 -9%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $1 $0 -22%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $69 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $73 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $4 −$1 -16%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $69 5d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 8d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 19d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 102d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 109d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 129d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 141d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 142d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 145d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 146d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 148d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 148d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 148d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $68 150d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 150d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $66 150d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $67 151d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 152d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 152d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $69 152d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $69 153d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 153d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.33 · official $70.33 (match) · 336 history records