Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd7a2…2b21 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,989 (-5%) realized −$2,756 · open −$233
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%57W / 61L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 237d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$4,988
politics 2% −$128
other 2% −$590
crypto 1% −$15
finance 0% −$49
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -25.6% -32.7% 31% 0% -19.3%
≤90d 33 -38.2% -44.1% 27% 9% +0.2%
all 118 -27.6% -34.5% 48% 32% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 32% -17.6%
10% -40.8% 9% -25.5%
15% -46.5% 5% -32.7%
20% -51.7% 2% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -27% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$147 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$2,756
Unrealized−$233
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses57 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)118 / 122
History coverage237d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 23¢ $330 $230 −$100 (-30%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $235 $208 −$27 (-12%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $107 $2 −$105 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $114 −$20 -18%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 14 $14 −$5 -36%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$26 -73%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $184 −$4 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$3 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? May 30 $2 $0 -5%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -19%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $586 −$9 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $9,255 +$1,395 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $91 −$63 -70%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 12 $402 −$32 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 11 $606 +$49 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $11 −$8 -69%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $36 +$64 +178%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $148 +$2 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $57 −$45 -79%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $179 −$42 -23%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Mar 22 $105 −$105 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Mar 18 $728 −$20 -3%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11? Mar 09 $76 +$24 +32%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $196 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $965 +$35 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $98 −$9 -9%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026? Feb 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 31 $2,947 −$39 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $1,979 +$21 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $10,565 −$3,304 -31%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $4,339 −$632 -15%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $5,435 +$565 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $2,731 +$469 +17%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $16 −$14 -87%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 15 $24 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $201 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $220 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $253 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 12d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? BUY Yes $6 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $112 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $57 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 13d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? SELL Yes $0 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 14d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? SELL No 17¢ $9 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $84 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $113 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $180 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $319 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $85 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $45 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.44 · official $444.44 (match) · 1204 history records