Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd7a0…b833 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%66W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$11
politics 41% +$2
sports 3% +$12
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 44% -23.5%
all 107 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 25% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 25% -9.2%
10% -11.8% 18% -17.9%
15% -20.3% 12% -25.9%
20% -28.2% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses66 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage547d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 10 $2 +$3 +155%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 21 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Apr 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 30 $16 +$7 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 24 $17 −$2 -10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 22 $2 +$3 +137%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 04 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 02 $22 +$1 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $3 +$5 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 06 $7 +$2 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $3 +$1 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 04 $13 +$2 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 01 $18 +$5 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jan 31 $11 $0 +3%
Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 28 $4 −$3 -81%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 27 $16 +$5 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jan 25 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $55 −$6 -12%
Will LNG Esports win Demacia Cup 2025? Jan 02 $37 +$8 +20%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 29 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 15 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $40 +$1 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 26 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $36 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 01 $5 +$25 +525%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 27 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 27 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 38¢ $2 50d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 93¢ $21 65d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $7 76d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 79d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $5 82d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 82d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 85d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier BUY JD Gaming 86¢ $12 87d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 70¢ $16 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 71¢ $16 93d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 79¢ $17 94d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $5 95d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March BUY Yes 11¢ $1 97d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL Yes 2¢ $1 100d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY Yes 2¢ $1 100d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 103d
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 103d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 92¢ $15 105d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 106d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 107d
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 112d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to BUY No 89¢ $18 114d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to BUY No 94¢ $22 117d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $11 120d
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? BUY No 58¢ $6 120d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 97¢ $16 131d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 85¢ $14 131d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $3 136d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $7 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.81 · official $39.81 (match) · 211 history records