Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd79f…dcb5 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 118L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$11
sports 25% −$7
other 23% −$7
crypto 7% −$2
culture 7% −$1
economics 7% −$2
world 3% +$2
finance 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 42 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 144 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage162d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $42 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $288 −$2 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $198 −$2 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $222 +$1 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $374 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $373 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $366 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $210 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $492 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $625 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $154 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $156 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $184 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $153 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 28 $314 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $153 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 27 $266 +$2 +1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $153 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 25 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $158 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $325 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $151 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $152 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 8d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $45 8d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $42 15d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $42 15d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 22d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 23d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $64 36d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $64 36d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $66 71d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $66 71d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $49 72d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $49 72d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $55 73d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $55 73d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 73d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 73d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $55 73d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $55 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $53 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $54 74d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $63 75d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $63 75d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $42 75d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $43 76d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $65 76d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $65 76d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $52 77d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 78d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $39 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.49 · official $45.49 (match) · 589 history records