Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd79c…18a1 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$304 (+10%) realized +$307 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$446
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -35.6% -41.8% 47% 37% +5.7%
≤30d 19 -35.6% -41.8% 47% 37% +5.7%
≤90d 19 -35.6% -41.8% 47% 37% +5.7%
all 19 -35.6% -41.8% 47% 37% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 37% +5.7%
10% -47.3% 26% -4.4%
15% -52.4% 26% -13.6%
20% -57.1% 0% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$35 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$307
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 83¢ 84¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 90¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 31¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $502 +$96 +19%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $606 +$285 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $535 +$232 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$6 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$20 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $56 −$47 -85%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$64 -64%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $233 +$101 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 64¢ $101 14h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 46¢ $5 14h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $5 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $101 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $100 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $100 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $101 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $767 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $535 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 2d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $8 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $37 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.47 · official $317.47 (match) · 47 history records