Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D7 0xd79a…7e51 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,609 (+4%) realized +$906 · open +$703
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,534per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29,857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,074
7 days+$940
14 days+$940
30 days+$913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% +$1,802
other 2% −$304
world 2% −$178
crypto 0% +$13
sports 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -40.3% -46.0% 50% 50% +5.5%
≤30d 6 -31.1% -37.7% 33% 33% +5.2%
≤90d 18 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 33% -2.5%
all 18 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 33% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 33% -2.5%
10% -47.0% 22% -11.9%
15% -52.2% 17% -20.4%
20% -56.8% 11% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$63 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$29,857
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$703
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage197d
Avg bet$1,534
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $13,708 $14,243 +$535 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $5,450 $6,173 +$723 (+13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $5,439 $4,908 −$531 (-10%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $3,500 $3,491 −$9 (-0%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,005 +$5 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $57 $37 −$19 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $5,523 +$1,074 +19%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $26 +$50 +194%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $91 −$21 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $59 −$44 -74%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $593 −$157 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 22 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 22 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -93%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $266 +$93 +35%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Apr 21 $438 −$271 -62%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $34 −$13 -40%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $16 +$6 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 2h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 92¢ $1,003 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $689 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $834 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $114 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 75¢ $3,535 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $1,218 13d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $621 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $59 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $134 15d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $2 16d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $4,784 16d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $2 17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $3,009 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $76 21d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $76 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $83 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $75 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 15¢ $8 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 80¢ $60 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 51¢ $30 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 42¢ $25 22d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $26 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1,137 23d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $492 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $29 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 76¢ $2 26d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $3,919 28d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $3,970 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,856.76 · official $29,791.14 (match) · 95 history records