Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D7 0xd798…9338 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$220 (-2%) realized −$221 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%79W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$214
14 days+$214
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$607
sports 13% +$175
other 3% +$112
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.8% +8.4% 75% 75% +41.2%
≤30d 4 +19.8% +8.4% 75% 75% +41.2%
≤90d 15 -13.4% -21.6% 60% 53% -19.6%
all 118 +8.9% -1.5% 67% 64% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 64% -11.4%
10% -10.9% 56% -19.9%
15% -19.5% 43% -27.6%
20% -27.4% 35% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$126 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses79 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage247d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $160 +$144 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 23 $200 −$149 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 22 $120 +$16 +14%
Miami Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Marin Cilic Mar 22 $125 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko Mar 22 $350 −$135 -39%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Cazaux Mar 22 $200 +$34 +17%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Mar 21 $100 +$15 +15%
Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Jakub Mensik Mar 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 12 $625 −$619 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 12 $446 −$443 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 12 $200 +$122 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 12 $200 −$197 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$61 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$89 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 11 $100 −$60 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 11 $200 +$74 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 11 $110 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$18 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$85 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 11 $200 +$48 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 11 $200 −$133 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 11 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 11 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 10 $300 +$114 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 10 $400 +$170 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 10 $200 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 10 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 10 $200 +$104 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 10 $200 +$115 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 10 $421 −$418 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$153 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 10 $251 −$249 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 10 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 10 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 10 $30 −$27 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$95 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 10 $161 −$159 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $143 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $160 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $51 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $100 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $123 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $100 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $114 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $100 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $22 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $20 86d
Miami Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Marin Cilic BUY Brandon Nakashima 56¢ $25 87d
Miami Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Marin Cilic SELL Brandon Nakashima 55¢ $108 87d
Miami Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Marin Cilic BUY Brandon Nakashima 51¢ $100 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $131 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $100 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $50 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 87d
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko SELL Ben Shelton 0¢ $0 87d
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $100 87d
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $50 87d
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Cazaux SELL Frances Tiafoe 97¢ $122 87d
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Cazaux SELL Frances Tiafoe 89¢ $112 87d
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Cazaux BUY Frances Tiafoe 72¢ $50 87d
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko SELL Ben Shelton 94¢ $61 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.09 · official $21.09 (match) · 316 history records