Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D7 0xd797…dc1e crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$18
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$6
other 40% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 86% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage75d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $279 $277 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $279 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $298 −$20 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $296 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 22 $296 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 20? May 21 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $294 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $294 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $291 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 11 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $288 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $288 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $288 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $288 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $287 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $303 −$14 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $301 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? Apr 18 $301 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15? Apr 16 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $279 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $279 23h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $278 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $298 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $298 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $297 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $296 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $296 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $296 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $296 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $294 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $294 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $294 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $293 42d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $291 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $290 46d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $289 50d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $288 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? SELL No 100¢ $288 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $288 53d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $288 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $288 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $287 60d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $289 64d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $303 65d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $302 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $302 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $301 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.32 · official $277.32 (match) · 59 history records