Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd793…49b0 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,465 (-5%) realized −$1,465 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%60W / 44L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$167
14 days+$91
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,402
other 2% +$26
crypto 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.5% +17.1% 70% 60% +12.6%
≤30d 29 +7.7% -2.6% 62% 59% -2.7%
≤90d 32 +5.1% -5.0% 62% 56% -2.7%
all 104 -9.6% -18.2% 58% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 38% -14.1%
10% -26.0% 27% -22.3%
15% -33.2% 18% -29.8%
20% -39.7% 12% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$78 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses60 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage141d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $28 +$9 +31%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 +$11 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$52 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$42 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$24 +94%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $44 +$38 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $138 −$61 -44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $67 +$38 +57%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $36 +$31 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $88 −$63 -72%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $62 +$26 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $155 −$51 -33%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $41 +$13 +30%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $100 +$52 +52%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $100 +$41 +41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $100 +$20 +20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $51 +$14 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Mar 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Bulls vs. Suns: O/U 223.5 Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $1 +$3 +300%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 27 $22 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 27 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 27 $13 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $28 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $129 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $117 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 12h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $115 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $22 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $48 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $81 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $82 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $44 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $44 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 75¢ $33 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 21¢ $33 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $105 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $105 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 63¢ $67 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records