Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd78c…a66e weather 1068 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$516 (-5%) realized −$534 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%471W / 623L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,421
7 days−$1,463
14 days−$1,278
30 days−$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 -46.4% -51.5% 30% 30% -63.3%
≤30d 779 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 49% -20.9%
≤90d 1094 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 43% -22.3%
all 1094 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 43% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 43% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 43% -29.7%
15% -31.2% 35% -36.5%
20% -38.0% 16% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$534
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses471 / 623
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1094 / 1068
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 55¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+148%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? No 72¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? No 68¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? No 69¢ 64¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? No 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 66¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? No 74¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 74¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? No 74¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? No 74¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 72¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? No 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? No 73¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19? No 65¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? No 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? No 70¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 70¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? No 61¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 27? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 1? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 22? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 27? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 23? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 29? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 2? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 29? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 27? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 24? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 27? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 26? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 23? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on April Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 23? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 1? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $15 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.47 · official $161.80 (match) · 3500 history records