Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd789…9be7 politics 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%46W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$38
14 days−$42
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$8
other 31% −$36
crypto 8% −$1
sports 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.0% -14.1% 5% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 96 -1.5% -10.9% 3% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 174 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 211 -0.6% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses46 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 213
History coverage98d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 −$25 -65%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $47 −$5 -11%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $48 −$2 -4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 06 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 17m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 48m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 7h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 8h
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 8h
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 13h
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 13h
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 14h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 21h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 21h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 21h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 23h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 74¢ $40 24h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 79¢ $43 28h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 28h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 29h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 29h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 31h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $7 31h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 31h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $8 31h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.00 · official $16.00 (match) · 1270 history records