Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd788…6690 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$296 (-6%) realized −$291 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$160
14 days−$275
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$457
other 16% +$8
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +59.3% +44.1% 75% 75% +17.2%
≤30d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 32% 32% -23.1%
≤90d 58 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% -22.7%
all 64 -25.7% -32.8% 33% 33% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 33% -19.5%
10% -39.2% 30% -27.2%
15% -45.1% 28% -34.3%
20% -50.5% 23% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$48 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage105d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $196 $190 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$12 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $416 +$160 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $94 +$78 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $85 −$80 -94%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $198 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $44 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $122 +$77 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 01 $118 +$40 +34%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 29 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 17 $105 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 16 $105 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 11 $15 −$14 -93%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $92 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 10 $48 −$46 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 10 $113 +$24 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 10 $64 +$51 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 10 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 09 $14 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 08 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 08 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 08 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 08 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 08 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 08 $170 −$159 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 08 $93 +$179 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 08 $104 +$290 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 08 $104 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 08 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 02 $91 −$86 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 02 $89 +$38 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 02 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 02 $23 +$52 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 02 $30 −$13 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 02 $35 +$7 +20%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 02 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 27 $192 −$189 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $55 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $79 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $14 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $134 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $313 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $245 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $262 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $171 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $172 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $94 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $85 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $179 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $44 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $51 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $198 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $122 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $142 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $96 15d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.41 · official $190.41 (match) · 144 history records