Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D7 0xd784…1cec other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$24 (+7%) realized +$24 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$35

7 days+$77

14 days+$63

30 days+$63

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-2.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+144.3%	+121.0%	100%	100%	+23.0%
≤30d	8	+40.6%	+27.2%	62%	62%	+13.2%
≤90d	12	+52.2%	+37.7%	67%	67%	+14.0%
all	17	+7.4%	-2.8%	47%	47%	+10.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.8%	47%	+10.2%
10%	-12.1%	35%	-0.3%
15%	-20.6%	35%	-10.0%
20%	-28.4%	29%	-18.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -66% → late +73% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized+$24

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage94d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$73	$73	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$22	+$35	+157%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$6	+$5	+79%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$2	+$8	+325%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$183	+$29	+16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$13	−$13	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$14	+$7	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	May 02	$1	+$3	+330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	May 02	$2	+$1	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	May 02	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	May 02	$5	+$1	+20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-03-31?	Mar 31	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Mar 27	$1	−$1	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Mar 27	$2	−$2	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Mar 27	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Mar 27	$1	−$1	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$74	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$58	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	72¢	$26	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$27	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$12	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	55¢	$6	4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$211	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$183	6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$3	11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	27¢	$3	12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$13	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$14	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$1	58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$2	58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$1	58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	58d
Will Algeria win on 2026-03-31?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$1	93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$1	93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$1	93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$1	93d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.72 · official $72.72 (match) · 31 history records