Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd782…1219 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$248 (+7%) realized +$267 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$186
14 days+$213
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$174
crypto 11% +$137
sports 3% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -29.2% -36.0% 41% 41% -16.3%
≤30d 34 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -3.5%
≤90d 34 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -3.5%
all 34 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 44% -3.5%
10% -34.8% 44% -12.7%
15% -41.1% 44% -21.2%
20% -46.9% 35% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$69 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $323 $321 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $195 $189 −$6 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-60%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$58 +58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $200 −$194 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$88 +88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $200 −$195 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $100 +$60 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$63 +63%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$91 +91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $200 +$275 +137%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $200 +$106 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$53 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$116 +116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$53 +53%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$97 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$143 +72%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$223 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $130 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $200 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 28h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 34h
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $200 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.86 · official $514.86 (match) · 56 history records