Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd781…daac
sports · 441 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$298 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$68 · open +$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$267
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses193 / 224
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions24
Markets (closed)417 / 441
History coverage30d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 24 History 417 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$75
14 days−$217
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 25¢ $59 $124 +$65 (+112%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $17 $30 +$13 (+79%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 76¢ 74¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 73¢ 90¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 48¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 36¢ 64¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+79%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 29¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-41%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 92¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 18¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-54%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 76¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 77¢ 51¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 67¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 66¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-76%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner T1 35¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 +$11 +88%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +140%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$13 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$5 +12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $17 +$18 +105%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +180%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $23 −$22 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$10 +140%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$20 +1825%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$6 +91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9 +$4 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +55%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 +$18 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$15 +246%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 +$9 +143%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$11 +234%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 +$9 +104%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 +$13 +123%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$16 -66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$6 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$6 -66%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $2 +$1 +86%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $3 +$4 +129%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$133
other 22% +$206
world 11% −$81
culture 3% +$4
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$8
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $6 0m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $48 0m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $37 0m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $13 0m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $1 0m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 5m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $2 5m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $2 7m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $7 20m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $9 20m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 48¢ $1 23m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $1 23m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $6 32m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $7 33m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $4 33m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 91¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $12 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $8 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $6 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +27.4% +15.3% 59% 55% -16.1%
≤30d 417 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 42% -11.3%
≤90d 417 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 42% -11.3%
all 417 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 42% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 40% -19.8%
15% -22.3% 38% -27.5%
20% -29.9% 33% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.22 · official $267.52 (match) · 1465 history records