Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd780…88f5
world · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage529d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 0 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+426%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $77 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $139 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $24 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $155 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $55 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $76 +$6 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $43 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $56 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $49 +$7 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $37 +$2 +6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $32 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $53 −$28 -53%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $251 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $400 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $251 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $446 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Dec 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? May 05 $1 $0 -41%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Mar 04 $4 +$8 +186%
Robert Morris vs. Cleveland State Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UC San Diego vs. CSU Bakersfield Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 31 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% +$15
politics 25% $0
other 22% −$29
sports 16% −$7
economics 4% $0
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $44 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $5 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $9 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $10 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $25 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $23 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $59 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $63 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $63 4d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $63 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +198.5% +170.1% 30% 10% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +106.1% +86.5% 47% 11% -8.1%
≤90d 29 +67.9% +51.9% 38% 7% -9.9%
all 50 +38.8% +25.6% 42% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.6% 8% -9.8%
10% +13.5% 4% -18.5%
15% +2.6% 4% -26.4%
20% -7.5% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.00 (match) · 195 history records