Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D7 0xd77f…a0fb crypto 537 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%296W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +14.8% +3.9% 81% 81% +2.7%
≤30d 141 +1.2% -8.4% 57% 57% -11.4%
≤90d 537 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 45% -11.1%
all 537 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 45% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 45% -11.1%
10% -20.4% 38% -19.6%
15% -28.1% 30% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 26% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses296 / 241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)537 / 537
History coverage63d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 537 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 21 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1367 history records