Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd77d…a55e other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,885 (-2%) realized −$1,885 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$847per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$27
politics 39% −$50
sports 11% −$1,822
world 2% +$7
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -1.9% -11.2% 6% 0% -11.4%
all 130 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 10% -11.1%
10% -18.8% 10% -19.6%
15% -26.7% 8% -27.3%
20% -33.9% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,276) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized−$1,885
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage155d
Avg bet$847
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $573 $573 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $859 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,846 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $693 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,335 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $204 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,117 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,856 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $848 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $600 +$2 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $340 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,192 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $852 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $851 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,484 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $35 −$9 -25%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 05 $1,605 −$1,605 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $1,308 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $573 7h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $756 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $756 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $692 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $693 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $863 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $864 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $831 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $832 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $985 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $843 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $867 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $868 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $746 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $747 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $844 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $845 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $345 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $346 17d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $408 20d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $408 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $871.75 · official $871.75 (match) · 403 history records