Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd779…06c3 world 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$241 (-3%) realized −$157 · open −$84
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%61W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days−$208
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$67
other 38% −$372
crypto 2% −$130
culture 1% +$6
economics 1% +$15
finance 1% −$40
politics 0% +$44
sports 0% −$27
tech 0% +$3
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.4% +18.0% 86% 71% -6.9%
≤30d 27 -29.5% -36.2% 48% 37% -22.8%
≤90d 94 -12.3% -20.7% 54% 43% -12.5%
all 128 +4.4% -5.5% 48% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 37% -12.3%
10% -14.6% 23% -20.7%
15% -22.8% 13% -28.3%
20% -30.4% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses61 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)128 / 145
History coverage107d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $72 $68 −$4 (-5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 57¢ 66¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 69¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 80¢ 46¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 20¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 42¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 59¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 67¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 37¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$159 -79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $204 +$27 +13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$68 +166%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $187 +$7 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 22 $244 +$27 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$125 -91%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $130 +$7 +6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$28 -59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$12 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -88%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 22 $860 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $434 −$392 -90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $423 +$14 +3%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $10 +$2 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 18 $40 +$8 +20%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $108 +$36 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $33 −$33 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 07 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $201 −$191 -95%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 04 $549 +$13 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, May 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 04 $140 +$38 +27%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 01 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $73 22m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 18¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $231 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $103 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $108 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $84 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $105 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $103 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 32h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $70 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $13 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $125 9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $117 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.53 · official $141.53 (match) · 454 history records