Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd772…138d crypto 69 markets active 6d ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$654 (-18%) realized −$654 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$670
other 7% +$2
politics 6% −$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% −$16
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 18 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 18 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 50% -12.5%
all 69 -5.3% -14.4% 20% 16% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 16% -29.6%
10% -22.5% 16% -36.3%
15% -30.0% 16% -42.5%
20% -36.9% 16% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$29 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$654
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage348d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? Feb 21 $2 $0 +0%
Les Wexner arrested by March 31? Feb 21 $3 −$1 -46%
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? Feb 21 $5 −$1 -13%
Trump sued over tariff powers again by March 31? Feb 21 $2 −$1 -25%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? Feb 21 $4 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Feb 21 $7 $0 -3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by February 28? Feb 21 $2 $0 -9%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? Feb 21 $7 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? Feb 21 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? Feb 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $1 $0 -1%
Hawks vs. Heat Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leavitt say "More" or "Again" 22+ times during the next White Hou Feb 03 $10 +$6 +57%
Bank of England increases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 15 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET Oct 17 $1,219 −$610 -50%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $13 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will PF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Jul 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Jul 12 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 11? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Braves vs. Athletics Jul 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 6d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 116d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 116d
Les Wexner arrested by March 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 116d
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? SELL No 20¢ $4 116d
Trump sued over tariff powers again by March 31? SELL No 9¢ $2 116d
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? BUY No 23¢ $5 116d
Les Wexner arrested by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 116d
Trump sued over tariff powers again by March 31? BUY No 12¢ $2 116d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 116d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 116d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 116d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records