Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd76e…e071 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-5%) realized −$124 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$78
politics 21% +$4
world 15% −$24
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% −$40
sports 2% −$1
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -59.6% -63.5% 33% 33% -63.3%
≤90d 25 -36.4% -42.4% 48% 32% -25.4%
all 74 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 20% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 20% -13.6%
10% -32.3% 12% -21.8%
15% -38.9% 8% -29.4%
20% -44.9% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 41
Open positions17
Markets (closed)74 / 91
History coverage164d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 83¢ 79¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 89¢ 80¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 83¢ 73¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 84¢ 69¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 52¢ 34¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 87¢ 77¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 38¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $10 +$2 +21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with vinegar? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 15 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $40 +$7 +16%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 01 $50 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $50 +$1 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Mar 26 $38 −$29 -75%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 19 $20 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 19 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 19 $42 +$7 +16%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 12 $2 $0 +21%
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? Mar 12 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 09 $30 +$2 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 08 $25 −$21 -86%
Will Nepali Communist Party win the third-most seats in the Nepal Hous Mar 08 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 03 $146 −$6 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $5 +$4 +85%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $50 $0 -1%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-e Feb 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Palantir dip to $126 in February? Feb 18 $71 −$1 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $200 $0 +0%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $640 on February 17? Feb 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "ISIS" at Fort Bragg on Friday? Feb 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times at Fort Bragg on Friday? Feb 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 12? Feb 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Congress" during EPA announcement? Feb 13 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during the Champion of Coal event? Feb 12 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 16d
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 30d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 56d
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $20 62d
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $36 69d
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $20 74d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $20 74d
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $10 75d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $20 75d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $50 75d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $22 75d
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $50 77d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $20 81d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 81d
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 81d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 81d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $10 81d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 81d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? SELL No 88¢ $13 81d
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $50 84d
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 84¢ $20 87d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 84¢ $30 87d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 85¢ $20 88d
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $20 88d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $26 88d
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? SELL No 100¢ $49 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.37 · official $234.87 (match) · 342 history records