Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd769…f90c crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$251,171 (-98%) realized −$271,172 · open +$20,001
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 117L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18,359per market
Trades / day135.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$30,916
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-81.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -91.6% -92.4% 3% 2% -91.4%
≤30d 126 -79.1% -81.1% 7% 6% -78.5%
≤90d 126 -79.1% -81.1% 7% 6% -78.5%
all 126 -79.1% -81.1% 7% 6% -78.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -81.1% 6% -78.5%
10% -82.9% 6% -80.6%
15% ← realistic here -84.5% 6% -82.5%
20% -86.1% 6% -84.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$3,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -69% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
127.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,579 vs −$4,531 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$65,914
Realized−$271,172
Unrealized+$20,001
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)126 / 14
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$18,359
Trades / day135.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 53¢ 99¢ $22,676 $42,492 +$19,815 (+87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 75¢ 74¢ $16,673 $16,567 −$106 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $6,531 $6,812 +$281 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 100¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Headshot" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 28 $2,883 −$3,369 -117%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 28 $1,122 −$1,122 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7? Jun 28 $2,420 −$2,420 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1? Jun 28 $29,048 −$29,048 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 28 $447 −$597 -134%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October? Jun 28 $25,701 −$25,392 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $1,440 −$1,482 -103%
Will "AWP" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 December 1-7? Jun 28 $4,120 −$4,120 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September? Jun 28 $58 −$60 -104%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? Jun 28 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Jun 28 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 28 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $68 +$169 +248%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 28 $190 −$189 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22? Jun 28 $8,368 −$7,979 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 28 $583 −$583 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 28 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7? Jun 28 $29,728 −$30,581 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $603 −$603 -100%
Will "Posture" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Jun 28 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23? Jun 28 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jun 28 $3 −$11,660 -393602%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 28 $71 −$132 -186%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 28 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 28 $696 −$781 -112%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15? Jun 28 $21,521 −$22,345 -104%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Jun 28 $16,965 −$16,965 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1? Jun 28 $29,527 −$29,527 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16? Jun 28 $452 −$452 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7? Jun 28 $17,448 −$17,448 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? Jun 28 $26,672 −$29,442 -110%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 28 $387 −$381 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 28 $515 −$602 -117%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Jun 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21? Jun 28 $1,907 −$2,637 -138%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1? Jun 28 $25,693 −$25,693 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1? Jun 28 $7,480 −$7,480 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? Jun 28 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $6 2m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $40 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 76¢ $11,443 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $5,474 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $887 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $273 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $2,154 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $3,857 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $366 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $275 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $396 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $847 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $184 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $396 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $847 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $1,217 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $13 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $302 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $19 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $267 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $3 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $6 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $5 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $4 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,914.01 · official $66,362.27 (match) · 3500 history records