Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd768…3bf0 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$742 (-10%) realized −$604 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,569
sports 21% +$484
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 46% -21.3%
≤30d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 46% -21.3%
≤90d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 46% -21.3%
all 13 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 46% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 46% -21.3%
10% -20.0% 46% -28.8%
15% -27.7% 46% -35.7%
20% -34.8% 38% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$400 vs −$478 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$604
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-11%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $918 −$420 -46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $511 +$327 +64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$208 +51%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$29 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $203 +$525 +258%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$185 +37%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 +$143 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,528 −$1,500 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,515 +$1,014 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $498 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $838 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $613 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 49¢ $203 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 65¢ $202 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $168 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $728 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $691 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $348 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $514 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.90 · official $211.90 (match) · 37 history records